Model Check

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is one of the longest-running and most widely cited measures of consumer confidence in the United States. It is published monthly and used by economists, policymakers, and investors as a benchmark for how consumers feel about the economy. Comparing against it gives an independent reference point for evaluating whether FishDog's weekly Mood Balance Index tracks real-world sentiment shifts.

Z-score normalization converts each data series into standard deviation units relative to its own mean. This makes two series with different original scales directly comparable on the same chart. A z-score of +1 means the value is one standard deviation above that series' average; -1 means one standard deviation below. The transformation preserves the shape and direction of each series while removing the scale difference.

FishDog's Mood Balance Index updates weekly, producing a new data point each time a survey run completes. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is published monthly by the University of Michigan, with a preliminary reading mid-month and a final reading at month-end. The FRED API, which supplies Michigan data to this page, typically lags a few weeks behind publication.

FishDog runs its mood survey weekly, producing roughly four data points for every one Michigan reading. This is the core resolution advantage: weekly granularity reveals intra-month dynamics that a monthly index compresses into a single number.

Directional alignment is a necessary signal but not a proof of accuracy. It shows that both measures respond to the same macroeconomic and social forces in broadly similar ways. The value of this comparison is as a sanity check and a credibility signal, not a statistical equivalence claim.

Yes. FishDog's public mood data is available at cat.fish.dog/zeitgeist/api/public/surveys/1/visuals. Michigan Consumer Sentiment data is available from the FRED API (series UMCSENT) at fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UMCSENT.