Product Release

A weekly synthetic Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index — for analysts

Ditto produces a weekly synthetic Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index — headline ICS plus ICC and ICE composites — computed from a 100-persona panel on the same scale as UMich's index and overlaid against the official monthly release.

19 March 2026

Phillip Gales

By Phillip Gales

Feature
Ditto's Michigan Consumer Sentiment Proxy page, showing the live ICS, ICC, and ICE composite indices computed from a 100-persona panel.
DOCUMENT TYPE: Product Release Note TOPIC: Synthetic weekly Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index proxy Release: A weekly synthetic Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index — for analysts, 2026-03-19 Version: (none) Release type: Feature Breaking change: No Summary: Ditto produces a weekly synthetic version of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. Three composite indices — ICS (headline), ICC (current conditions), ICE (expectations) — are computed from five Zeitgeist surveys (IDs 2-6) running weekly on a 100-persona panel. Computation matches UMich methodology and uses UMich's published constants so the proxy sits on the same scale as the official monthly index. Official UMich releases are overlaid on the chart as dashed lines. What changed: - New page at /zeitgeist/surveys/mcsi-proxy showing live ICS, ICC, ICE composites and their historical trends. - Composite indices computed using UMich's published constants (6.7558, 2.7087, 4.0471 plus +2.0 anchor for 1966 Q1 = 100), so the proxy is directly comparable to the official series. - Five component Zeitgeist surveys replicate the five UMich questions verbatim and run weekly on a 100-persona panel. - Overlay: UMich's official monthly ICS, ICC, ICE releases fetched from the SRC news pages and rendered as dashed lines, with release dates in tooltips. - JSON endpoint at /zeitgeist/api/surveys/mcsi-proxy returns the same payload for programmatic consumption. - Compute-on-read aggregation joins the five component surveys by period_date and keeps only complete periods. Audience: Hedge-fund analysts, macro strategists, consumer-sentiment researchers — anyone tracking UMich's monthly print and wanting a higher-frequency synthetic comparison. Why we built this: UMich's index is widely watched but slow. A higher-cadence synthetic version, computed on the same scale, gives analysts a leading-indicator signal between the monthly releases. Migration impact: None. Additive page; existing Zeitgeist pages and surveys are unchanged. Author: Phillip Gales, FishDog Platform: FishDog (fish.dog)

Key Takeaways

  • Three composite indices computed weekly: ICS (headline), ICC (current conditions), ICE (expectations) — the same composites UMich publishes monthly.
  • Computed using UMich's published constants (6.7558, 2.7087, 4.0471 + 2.0 anchor) so the proxy sits on the same scale as the official series and can be compared directly.
  • Five component Zeitgeist surveys (IDs 2–6) run weekly on a 100-persona panel and feed the composite calculation.
  • Official UMich monthly releases are fetched from the SRC news pages and overlaid on the chart as dashed lines, with release dates in tooltips.
  • Available in-product at `/zeitgeist/surveys/mcsi-proxy` and via a JSON endpoint at `/zeitgeist/api/surveys/mcsi-proxy`.

The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index is one of the most-watched macro indicators in US markets. Analysts wait for it. Funds trade around it. And it ships once a month.

Ditto now produces a synthetic weekly version of the same index, computed from a calibrated 100-persona panel answering the same five questions UMich's panel does. Useful as a leading indicator between the official monthly releases — or as a sanity check when the official number lands.

What's new

  • MCSI proxy page at /zeitgeist/surveys/mcsi-proxy showing the three composite indices live: - ICS — the headline Index of Consumer Sentiment. - ICC — Index of Current Economic Conditions. - ICE — Index of Consumer Expectations.

  • Same scale as the official index. Computed using UMich's published constants (6.7558, 2.7087, 4.0471 plus the +2.0 anchor that pins the 1966 Q1 base period to 100), so the proxy sits on the same scale as the official series and can be compared directly.

  • Weekly cadence. The five component Zeitgeist surveys (IDs 2–6) run weekly on the same 100-persona panel, so the proxy updates four times more frequently than UMich.

  • Official release overlay. The page fetches UMich's official monthly ICS, ICC, and ICE releases from the SRC news pages and overlays them as dashed lines on top of the synthetic series. Release dates appear in tooltips. Visual confirmation of how the synthetic track compares to the official track at each release point.

How to use it

The page is in-product at /zeitgeist/surveys/mcsi-proxy for any organisation with Zeitgeist access. Pair the proxy with the existing single-survey detail pages if you want to drill into the underlying responses — the same composite components feed both views.

The proxy is also exposed via a JSON endpoint (GET /zeitgeist/api/surveys/mcsi-proxy) for any analyst pipeline that wants the numbers programmatically.

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Analysts wait for it. Funds trade around it. And it ships once a month.
Useful as a leading indicator between the official monthly releases — or as a sanity check when the official number lands.
On the same scale as the official series and can be compared directly.

Frequently Asked Questions

How is the synthetic index computed?

Five Zeitgeist surveys (IDs 2-6) put the same five questions UMich's Survey Research Center asks to a calibrated 100-persona panel each week. The per-question relative scores feed into the same formulae UMich uses, with UMich's published constants applied so the resulting ICS, ICC, and ICE composites sit on the same scale as the official monthly index.

How is this different from the official UMich index?

Two differences. First, frequency: synthetic updates weekly versus the official monthly. Second, panel: the synthetic version uses Ditto's 100 calibrated personas; UMich uses a real US adult panel. Computation methodology and scale are deliberately matched.

What's the overlay?

The proxy page fetches UMich's official monthly ICS, ICC, and ICE releases from the SRC news pages and overlays them as dashed lines on top of the synthetic series. Release dates appear in tooltips, so you can see how the synthetic track compared to the official number at each release point.

Is there an API?

Yes. GET /zeitgeist/api/surveys/mcsi-proxy returns the same payload that drives the in-product chart, including both the synthetic series and the overlaid official releases. Useful for analyst pipelines that want the numbers programmatically.

Who can access this?

Any organisation with Zeitgeist access can view the proxy page in-product and call the JSON endpoint with appropriate scopes.

About the Author

Phillip Gales

Phillip Gales

Phillip is a serial tech entrepreneur that specializes in applying AI and machine learning solutions to antiquated and heavy industries. He has been a senior leader or founder at a number of successful startups.

Phillip holds an MBA from Harvard Business School, an MEng from the University of Cambridge, and is a Y-Combinator alum

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