White Papers

The methodology, in writing.

How FishDog builds and validates synthetic research, and what the published record says about the survey research it is measured against.

The papers

01 / PAPERS
June 2026 · Phillip Gales and Andreas Duess

Synthetic Populations: How FishDog Builds, Calibrates, and Validates Them

The methodology behind FishDog synthetic research: populations built from US Census and ACS microdata, calibrated to roughly 1 percent average marginal error, validated daily against prediction markets, Gallup, Pew, and the University of Michigan sentiment series. Includes known limitations and what a reviewer can inspect.

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June 2026 · Phillip Gales and Andreas Duess

Synthetic Experts: How Thesis Lab Builds a Recruited Population

How Thesis Lab builds a synthetic expert network for investment research: what the experts are made of, how they are tested, known limitations, a worked example, and the technical appendix a reviewer can inspect. For institutional and professional investors. Not investment advice.

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